Will Laura Gillen be the Democratic nominee for NY-04?
0xd426b5e37b1adeb4a30ed0ece09fe70b5ca0aee2392a43c97b18af26b3fec447 · closes Jun 23, 2026 · 69 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 206.5% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1365.7% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 3 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1698% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 7.87 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 2.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 1366% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
100 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xd426b5e37b1adeb4a30ed0ece09fe70b5ca0aee2392a43c97b18af26b3fec447 yes 100