Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 10 or more seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?
0xa2694315da159a18f38a07951f3b3871eadfe501442f3c8a4d623eeff1f6ac50 · closes Jun 3, 2026 · 49 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 499.8% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 1124.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 2 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.42 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 1142% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 4.99 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 1.8/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 656% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
260 indicator snapshots · 4 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
At least four South Korean parliamentary seats will be contested in by-elections on June 3, 2026, held alongside the nationwide local elections taking place on the same day. Re-elections are equivalent to by-elections for the purposes of this market. This market will resolve according to the number of National Assembly seats won by the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) in parliamentary by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026. Any seat won by the Democratic Party of Korea in these elections will count, regardless of the party that controlled the relevant seat prior to these elections. Seats uncontested during the June 3 election will not have any impact on the resolution of this market. If the results of these elections are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in these elections, not any coalition or alliance of which it may be a part. This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (http://nec.go.kr/site/nec/main.do). Note: this market includes any National Assembly seats contested in by-elections scheduled for June 3, 2026, not just elections which are scheduled as of this market’s creation.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xa2694315da159a18f38a07951f3b3871eadfe501442f3c8a4d623eeff1f6ac50 yes 100