Will the Democratic Party win the OR-06 House seat?

The market is pricing in an extremely high Democratic win probability at 92¢, but the zero 24-hour volume and modest $25k open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction behind this price. The massive 2091.8% implied yield on the "No" side is a classic sign of an illiquid extreme-probability market where small positions create outsized theoretical returns, though the 12 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful uncertainty despite the lopsided pricing. With 201 days to expiration, this appears to be a solidly Democratic district being treated as a near-certainty, but the lack of trading activity warrants caution about whether this price reflects genuine market consensus or simply reflects an initial seed position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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