Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will Christine Drazan win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary election?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. Christine Drazan is priced at 47¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (1287% for Yes, 1012% for No), reflecting the market's extreme uncertainty just 32 days before the May 19 primary close.
Analysis
Christine Drazan is priced at 47¢ with exceptionally high implied yields (1287% for Yes, 1012% for No), reflecting the market's extreme uncertainty just 32 days before the May 19 primary close. The 447% realized volatility and 2.0 info arrivals per hour suggest active repricing around candidate developments, though the modest $179 daily volume and $19k open interest indicate thin liquidity that could amplify price swings. The neutral regime and flat 2-point price movement over seven days suggest the market is currently balanced, but the 3¢ spread and high cliff risk index signal potential for sharp moves as primary day approaches.
Also on kalshi at 64¢(Δ +2¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oregon, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oregon Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oregon Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
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sf trade 0xae24a20b929886191f7c1c71681a3c4239c988016a3b4e49696819b47b5f84ba yes 100