Will Matthew Stafford win the 2026 NFL MVP?
Prediction markets currently give a 46% probability that Will Matthew Stafford win the 2026 NFL MVP?. This contract trades at 46¢ on Polymarket, closing February 15, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $19.76 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 302-day runway until expiry.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $19.76 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 302-day runway until expiry. The massive 84¢ bid-ask spread and 376% realized volatility suggest highly erratic pricing, with the implied yield of 167% likely reflecting illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge. The 3.03 volatility ratio and minimal info arrival rate (1.2/h) indicate this is a thin, inactive market where Stafford's actual MVP odds may differ substantially from the quoted price.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 NFL Most Valuable Player award for the 2026-27 NFL season. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by NFL rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026-27 NFL season is cancelled, postponed after February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0x236827b4e4f4786650e61d86b301c642e87672b710e2498ecd72fd7d8615450c yes 100