Will the Reserve Bank of New Zealand make no change to the official cash rate after the May decision?

The market is pricing an 84% probability of no OCR change at the May RBNZ decision, up significantly from 74¢ seven days ago, suggesting recent economic data or central bank communications have shifted expectations toward a hold. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (170.9% for Yes vs. 4710.3% for No) indicate severe mispricing or illiquidity on the "rate cut/hike" side, with only $12.06 in 24-hour volume despite $13.2M open interest, creating potential execution challenges. With 41 days to expiry and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears to be consolidating around the hold scenario, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 5 suggests binary event risk remains material.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy] This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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