Will Jack Reed be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?
0x0714dc5c20ec9714b05d1e85e365fcb99b34a0b5261f01c3a8333c568e02abce · closes Sep 8, 2026 · 145 days remaining
Price
Cross-venue · kalshi
Same outcome trades on Will Jack Reed be the Democratic nominee for the Senate in Rhode Island? · match confidence 0.56 · close-time delta 1359h
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 13.2% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 4769.6% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 19 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | — | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | 0.01 | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 53% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 1.47 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 0.3/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 4719% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
7-Day History
50 indicator snapshots · 6 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island. If no 2026 Rhode Island Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
How to trade
View on polymarket: external link →
Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0x0714dc5c20ec9714b05d1e85e365fcb99b34a0b5261f01c3a8333c568e02abce yes 100