Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Size of Fed balance sheet on Dec 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 943.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price reflects no actual trading rather than genuine market consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 943.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 0¢ price reflects no actual trading rather than genuine market consensus. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the price level, and the recent decline from 15¢ to 13¢ over seven days indicates some activity may exist off-venue or the market is struggling to attract participants. With 259 days to expiry and a high cliff risk index of 7, this appears to be a nascent market where the Fed balance sheet exceeding $7.1 trillion by late 2026 is being heavily underpriced by the lack of liquidity rather than fundamental bearishness.
Resolution rules
If the value of Assets: Total Assets: Total Assets (Less Eliminations from Consolidation): Wednesday Level (WALCL) for Dec 30, 2026 is above $7.1 trillion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXBALANCESHEET-EO26-7.1 yes 100