SimpleFunctions
PolymarketJan 3, 2027239 days left

Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?

This contract is priced at 12¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 23¢ ask, 22¢ spread.

Implied probability

12¢
$65 volume
$392 liquidity
4% of event volume

Event outcomes

6

Family volume

$2K

Best sibling

Hakeem Jeffries 76¢

Ticker

0x27fbd69a…cb60

Market snapshot

Pete Aguilar in market context.

This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Pete Aguilar be the first Speaker of the House after the 2026 midterms?. The displayed quote is 12¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports reported volume of $65. In the Speaker of the House after the midterms? family, this outcome ranks #2 of 6 by current quote across 6 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC.

Outcome

Pete Aguilar

Family rank

#2 of 6

Venue

Polymarket

Current quote

12¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until Jan 3, 2027

Reported volume

$65

Family context

6 outcomes · Speaker of the House after the midterms?

Quote range

4¢-76¢

Family leader

Hakeem Jeffries 76¢

Last updated

May 9, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 7m ago

Venue identifier: 0x27fbd69a4b6bffa23d4e60941f8a41ac3844de3937e6b17d9aca50cd4bfccb60. Family volume: $2K.

Price history

12¢ current

2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 1, 2026May 9, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 23¢

Polymarket
22¢ spread
BidSize
100¢100
100¢83
100¢10
0¢7.8K
0¢533
0¢100
AskSize
23¢9
24¢20
76¢431
76¢180
77¢99
79¢38
84¢6
84¢71

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the first individual elected to be Speaker of the House by the United States House of Representatives of the 120th United States Congress following the 2026 United States midterm elections. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States House of Representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jan 3, 2027

Identifier

0x27fbd69a…cb60

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1121.3%

IY (No)

20.9%

Adj IY

0%

CRI

7

RV

9301%

VR

52.02

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1121.3%
20.9%
Adj IY
0%
7
RV
9301%
VR
52.02
IAR
5.3/h
Overround
0.1%
LAS
1.83

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogpolitics

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.

Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

Technicalguide

Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity

Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index