Speaker of the House after the midterms
Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 12%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Hakeem Jeffries
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
12¢
Pete Aguilar
Spread
63pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
239 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Speaker of the House after the midterms
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Katherine Clark
0x040ca7…17b3
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Steve Scalise
0xa8c1b9…2190
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Pete Aguilar
0x27fbd6…cb60
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Hakeem Jeffries
0x489e65…9e91
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Mike Johnson
0xc20c64…17ad
Speaker of the House after the midterms?: Jim Jordan
0x0eb441…378c
Analysis
The 87% probability reflects market confidence that a single party will control the Speaker position after November 2026, with the leading outcome heavily favored over alternatives. This implies the market expects a decisive midterm result rather than a closely divided chamber. The current House composition and historical patterns of midterm swings are primary drivers—if Democrats maintain or gain seats, the incumbent Speaker pathway strengthens; if Republicans expand their majority, alternative outcomes become more likely. The midterm elections themselves on November 3, 2026, will directly determine the new House composition and thus resolve which party controls the Speaker office.
- ›Current House seat distribution and projected seat changes based on district-level polling and historical midterm trends
- ›Whether either party achieves a working majority (218+ seats) or faces divided government dynamics that constrain Speaker selection
- ›Turnout patterns and swing district performance in competitive districts, which typically determine midterm outcomes
- ›Potential Speaker contests within the winning party if internal factions dispute the nomination
- ›Economic conditions and approval ratings between now and November 2026, which historically correlate with midterm vote share
What moved the line
- May 6Pete Aguilar↑9pp11→20¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Mike Johnson↑7pp15→22¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Hakeem Jeffries↓6pp87→81¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Mike Johnson↑4pp11→15¢ · Polymarket
- May 8Hakeem Jeffries↑4pp80→84¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.