What is the current probability for "Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 15261.3% and 26.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Tesla and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

4¢

$71K volume

$3K liquidity

0% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$63.8M

Best sibling

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Elon Musk 1¢

Ticker

0xc4948799…ae0f

Price history

4¢ current

−3¢

Apr 10, 2026May 1, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 5¢

Polymarket

2¢ spread

BidSize

100¢2.3K

3¢1.2K

2¢673

AskSize

5¢992

6¢845

7¢54

8¢154

30¢17

31¢30

32¢16

34¢14

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with xAI, or vice versa, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or xAI within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0xc4948799…ae0f

Event family

Tech / IPO.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$63.8M

Outcomes