Will the Democratic Party win the TX-31 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1117.4% implied yield on the Yes side versus 29.6% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price significantly undervalues Democratic chances in this traditionally Republican district. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $28.4K open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to manipulation. With 201 days until the November 2026 election and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a speculative mispricing rather than a market-efficient assessment of Democratic viability in TX-31.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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