Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.9%?

The Yes position at 21¢ implies only a 21% probability of UK Q1 2026 GDP growth landing in the 0.6-0.9% range, yet shows an extraordinary 4960% annualized yield with just 28 days to expiry—suggesting either severe underpricing or extreme tail risk perception. The massive 39¢ spread and 1197% realized volatility indicate significant market uncertainty, while the 7¢-to-21¢ seven-day rally suggests recent positive sentiment shift toward this narrow growth band. With resolution occurring exactly at market close (May 14) and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, timing risk is acute; the 2.37 volatility ratio and 2.3 info arrivals per hour suggest active repricing ahead of the official GDP release.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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