Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 1.8%?

This market shows extreme mispricing signals with a 63¢ spread and implied yields exceeding 2600% on the Yes side, suggesting severe illiquidity despite $356k open interest. The 34¢ price implies only a 34% probability for a relatively narrow 1.5-1.8% growth band, which appears pessimistic given the UK's recent economic trajectory, though the realized volatility of 3028% and high vol ratio of 5.22 indicate substantial uncertainty about Q1 2026 GDP outcomes. With just 27 days to resolution and low 24-hour volume of $194, this market lacks sufficient depth for reliable price discovery, making the current quote potentially exploitable for informed traders with conviction on UK growth forecasts.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

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