Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be negative?

The market is pricing an extremely low 6% probability of negative UK GDP growth in Q1 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 20,657% implied yield—a massive disconnect suggesting either severe underpricing of recession risk or illiquidity-driven distortion. With only $12.195 in 24-hour volume against $271.188 open interest and a 9¢ spread, the thin liquidity and extreme yield skew warrant caution; the 2,061% realized volatility indicates this contract has experienced wild swings despite the low nominal price. The market resolves on its expiration date (5/14/2026), leaving just 28 days for new information to arrive at a 0.9/hour rate, so late-breaking economic data could rapidly repriced this heavily skewed position.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Indicators

Regime

Trade