Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$46.8M
Best sibling
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 26¢
Ticker
0x48c2b063…7f39
Price history
3¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x48c2b063…7f39
Event family
Ukraine / Russia conflict.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$46.8M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
No meeting by June 30 91¢
Current share
2%
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027
polymarket · 0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026
polymarket · 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x495e6b49e7397bb4e6f8ce69e246ccb33b744678bd9bf88cbecbd3a113b05423
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026
polymarket · 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
polymarket · 0x8c48f3acf4177b5ceb012a8a2dc7a9c219eeae4a032d6ddcbc3c2ffab907439a
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026
polymarket · 0x51f624dbbf14f9edb575fef1be6f7a303751de70783fa144fce27b957452c803
Eurovision Winner 2026: Ukraine
polymarket · 0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097
United Russia (ER)
polymarket · 0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
polymarket · 0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
polymarket · 0x1a1346d763389455dac46a51e20c4cc25aecef5323f1701a440cc11d4c3f129e
Other EU country
polymarket · 0x6c85fe5b4197dc55dafef8368acaddb96adb892447730dfa53076c537b0bd9f6
No meeting by June 30
polymarket · 0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7
Russia
polymarket · 0x9031561489f77ba1f89c0b963170a6853c39840e6e89a6a658a05d12b60a1ff0
Rodina
polymarket · 0x2636a06ef9192d50bf0100bf8c857cfe346e8b230978056f2857cb69276e5c46
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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