What is the current probability for "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 6¢ (6% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 31, 2026. 27 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 20949.3% and 85.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketMay 31, 202627 days left

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 0¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

6¢

$2.2M volume

$384K liquidity

5% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$46.8M

Best sibling

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 26¢

Ticker

0xa93b28a6…9b35

Price history

6¢ current

+2¢

Apr 22, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

6 / 6¢

Polymarket

0¢ spread

BidSize

6¢31K

6¢5.9K

6¢6

6¢110

5¢20K

5¢50K

5¢3.7K

AskSize

6¢1.2K

6¢13K

6¢11K

6¢8.1K

6¢19K

6¢2.7K

7¢2.7K

7¢700

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward. Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0xa93b28a6…9b35

Event family

Ukraine / Russia conflict.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$46.8M

Outcomes