Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?
This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 0¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$46.8M
Best sibling
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026 26¢
Ticker
0x495e6b49…5423
Price history
3¢ current
−1¢Orderbook snapshot
3 / 3¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2025
Identifier
0x495e6b49…5423
Event family
Ukraine / Russia conflict.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$46.8M
Outcomes
16
Highest price
No meeting by June 30 91¢
Current share
6%
June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0x495e6b49e7397bb4e6f8ce69e246ccb33b744678bd9bf88cbecbd3a113b05423
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026
polymarket · 0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026
polymarket · 0xe546672750517f62c45a5a00067481981e62b9c20fa8220203232c9dc8fd2093
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026
polymarket · 0x6bd56627aa21311850825edb27e53434a0e17a4f782be0086bc07f71eee00d0d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026
polymarket · 0xa93b28a6384aefff4e7d5adb2061c444e4a0e95b8ad17755f9cee123c7099b35
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
polymarket · 0x8c48f3acf4177b5ceb012a8a2dc7a9c219eeae4a032d6ddcbc3c2ffab907439a
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026
polymarket · 0x51f624dbbf14f9edb575fef1be6f7a303751de70783fa144fce27b957452c803
Eurovision Winner 2026: Ukraine
polymarket · 0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097
United Russia (ER)
polymarket · 0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire
polymarket · 0x9c1a953fe92c8357f1b646ba25d983aa83e90c525992db14fb726fa895cb5763
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30
polymarket · 0x1a1346d763389455dac46a51e20c4cc25aecef5323f1701a440cc11d4c3f129e
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027
polymarket · 0x48c2b06383f2bfe38ce3c68fc7623586b11817d061f52ecada284c82eb717f39
Other EU country
polymarket · 0x6c85fe5b4197dc55dafef8368acaddb96adb892447730dfa53076c537b0bd9f6
No meeting by June 30
polymarket · 0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7
Russia
polymarket · 0x9031561489f77ba1f89c0b963170a6853c39840e6e89a6a658a05d12b60a1ff0
Rodina
polymarket · 0x2636a06ef9192d50bf0100bf8c857cfe346e8b230978056f2857cb69276e5c46
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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