What price will Bitcoin hit in April?
Leader sits at 95% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 80,000
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
↑ 90,000
Spread
35pp
contested
24h volume
$87K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 45,000
0x024b68…6fee
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 40,000
0x1e5564…baa2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 50,000
0xce3c54…2c56
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 110,000
0x63eaf4…7b01
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 55,000
0x752fa6…8a8c
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 15,000
0xa885bf…3713
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 80,000
0x6e1fbd…5a55
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 30,000
0x903a13…69ef
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 35,000
0x2745c3…a2a2
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 150,000
0xa7b594…1cda
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 160,000
0x472c90…54b0
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 10,000
0xd8a584…7d29
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 100,000
0xdaa486…990f
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 90,000
0xbb379a…f50e
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 25,000
0xe326d1…e775
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 130,000
0x885a6a…a859
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 170,000
0x9affeb…4234
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 200,000
0xac32e7…68cd
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↓ 20,000
0x23fb92…69fc
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?: ↑ 140,000
0xf0a4c0…f15e
What moved the line
- Apr 28↑ 150,000↑26pp9→35¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↑ 150,000↓26pp35→9¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↓ 20,000↓13pp20→7¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 20,000↑12pp8→20¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 30↑ 140,000↓11pp20→9¢ · Polymarket
More like this
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Bitcoin Collapses Below $80k Probability — $80k Strike Drops 27¢ in Single Day
The Bitcoin $80k April strike contract cratered -27¢ to just 21¢ today, confirming BTC is being priced well below $80,000. The $85k contract is at 2¢ effectively dead. IBIT is down 1% in traditional markets. Long-term BTC bulls face a market that's pricing continued weakness.
Bitcoin April $80k Target Falls -4¢ as BTC ETF Drops — End of Month Window Closing
With days left in April, the Bitcoin $80k target contract fell -4¢ to 43¢ and the $82.5k contract dropped -6¢ to 10¢ as IBIT slips 0.25%. Kalshi's end-of-month $80k trimmed mean contract is at 39¢, creating a near-arbitrage with Polymarket.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 6 min ago.