What price will Bitcoin hit in April?

30-day trend

Analysis

The prediction market suggests a 74% probability that Bitcoin will trade below $55,000 at some point during 2026. This reflects current market sentiment about Bitcoin's price range over the next several months. The high probability of a sub-$55,000 price is driven by two primary factors: recent volatility and the distance of this threshold from current price levels, which traders view as moderately achievable. Traders are also pricing in broader macroeconomic uncertainties, interest rate expectations, and regulatory developments that could influence crypto markets. The probability will shift substantially based on Bitcoin's actual price movements between now and year-end, with any sustained rally above $65,000 likely reducing the probability of remaining below $55,000. Conversely, any significant decline would increase it. April specifically serves as a natural checkpoint within the year-long timeframe, though the full-year resolution date extends to December 2026.

• ›Bitcoin's current price relative to the $55,000 threshold determines immediate directional pressure; prices moving up reduce this probability while declines increase it
• ›The 74% probability places the $55,000 level as the single most-traded contract, suggesting it represents the consensus central estimate for year-end range
• ›Macroeconomic factors including US monetary policy, inflation data, and stock market performance are primary variables affecting capital flows into Bitcoin
• ›Historical Bitcoin volatility suggests significant price swings remain likely through 2026, increasing probability of touching sub-$55,000 at some point during the year
• ›Regulatory announcements, particularly around crypto framework legislation or institutional adoption, could sharply shift market expectations

What moved the line

• Jun 15↑ 90,000↑5pp28→33¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 16↑ 90,000↓5pp33→28¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 15↑ 100,000↑3pp17→20¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 12↓ 45,000↓3pp44→41¢ · Polymarket
• Jun 15↓ 55,000↓3pp68→65¢ · Polymarket

Recently closed in bitcoin

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds