SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 26, 202615 days left

What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 65¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 65¢ bid, 67¢ ask, 2¢ spread.

Implied probability

65¢
$11K volume
$9K liquidity
8% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$138K

Best sibling

Event does not qualify 1¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-HEIS

Market snapshot

Heisman in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University?. The displayed quote is 65¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $10K. In the What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University family, this outcome ranks #3 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Outcome

Heisman

Family rank

#3 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

65¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 26, 2026

24h volume

$10K

Family context

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University

Quote range

1¢-70¢

Family leader

Draft / Drafted 70¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 14m ago

Venue identifier: KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-HEIS. Family volume: $138K.

Price history

65¢ current

12¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

65 / 67¢

Kalshi
2¢ spread
BidSize
65¢222
64¢240
63¢782
62¢248
61¢433
AskSize
67¢134
69¢70
70¢106
71¢10
73¢139

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump says Heisman as part of THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 26, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-HEIS

SF Signal
SF Index
3827.26
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1510.8%

IY (No)

4021.9%

Adj IY

3827%

CRI

2

RV

1125%

VR

2.58

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

1510.8%
4021.9%
Adj IY
3827%
2
RV
1125%
VR
2.58
IAR
2.3/h
Overround
9.2%
LAS
0.05

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SimpleFunctions context

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.