SimpleFunctions
KalshiMay 26, 202615 days left

What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University?

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 11 May 2026Methodology

This contract is priced at 38¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 37¢ bid, 38¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Implied probability

38¢
$7K volume
$6K liquidity
5% of event volume

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$138K

Best sibling

Event does not qualify 1¢

Ticker

KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-IRAN

Market snapshot

Iran / Iranian in market context.

This page tracks the Kalshi contract for What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University?. The displayed quote is 38¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $7K. In the What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University family, this outcome ranks #10 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC.

Outcome

Iran / Iranian

Family rank

#10 of 16

Venue

Kalshi

Current quote

38¢

Quote source

Latest venue quote

Timing

Listed until May 26, 2026

24h volume

$7K

Family context

16 outcomes · What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University

Quote range

1¢-70¢

Family leader

Draft / Drafted 70¢

Last updated

May 11, 2026, 6:38 PM UTC · 14m ago

Venue identifier: KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-IRAN. Family volume: $138K.

Price history

38¢ current

32¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

37 / 38¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
37¢159
36¢243
35¢310
34¢335
32¢510
AskSize
38¢188
40¢25
42¢20
43¢123
44¢55

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Donald Trump says Iran / Iranian as part of THE PRESIDENT hosts the 2026 National Football Champions, Indiana University , then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

May 26, 2026

Identifier

KXTRUMPMENTIONB-26MAY11-IRAN

SF Signal
SF Index
4138.66
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

4382.3%

IY (No)

1386.6%

Adj IY

4139%

CRI

2

RV

1284%

VR

1.88

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

4382.3%
1386.6%
Adj IY
4139%
2
RV
1284%
VR
1.88
IAR
1.8/h
Overround
9.2%
LAS
0.06

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Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.