What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner?
Prediction markets currently give a 25% probability that What will Donald Trump say during White House Correspondents' Dinner?. This contract trades at 25¢ on Kalshi, closing April 26, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,586% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price severely underestimates the probability that Trump mentions "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the April 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 21,586% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 21¢ price severely underestimates the probability that Trump mentions "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" at the April 2026 White House Correspondents' Dinner. The unusually high realized volatility (1,028%) and cliff risk index (5) indicate sharp recent price swings, yet volume remains thin at just $271.48 in 24 hours with only $4,666.99 open interest, limiting confidence in the price discovery. With 8 days to expiry and Trump's known tendency to discuss technology and business topics at public events, the Yes side appears substantially undervalued relative to the resolution criteria's low bar.
Resolution rules
If Donald Trump says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of White House Correspondents' Dinner, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXTRUMPMENTION-26APR25-AI yes 100