Will AGI be achieved by 2026?
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 49% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
49%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$12K
8 contracts
Closes
Oct 1, 2026
9 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 10 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL10
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL6
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL2
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 8 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL8
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 4 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL4
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 12 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL12
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 16 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL16
Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 14 percentage points?
KXHOUSEPOPVOTEMARGIND-26NOV03-AL14
What moved the line
- Sep 19Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 6 percentage points?↑10pp68→78¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Will Democrats win the 2026 national House popular vote by at least 2 percentage points?↑4pp86→90¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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