Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be at least 2.50T?

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (3%) for SpaceX reaching a $2.50T valuation at IPO, yet shows exceptional realized volatility of 4,640% with moderate information arrival at 1.3 events per hour, suggesting significant uncertainty despite the bearish consensus. The 5¢ spread combined with $5M open interest indicates reasonable liquidity for such an extreme tail event, though the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 32 warns of potential sharp repricing if SpaceX IPO timelines materialize. The recent price movement from 3¢ to 4¢ over seven days reflects modest bullish pressure, but would require SpaceX to achieve roughly 2.7x its current private market valuation (~$180B) to resolve yes, making this a highly speculative bet on aggressive IPO pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of SpaceX at its initial public offering (IPO) price. The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered. Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered. If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range. If SpaceX does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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