When will Anduril IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that When will Anduril IPO?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market is pricing an Anduril IPO before August 2026 at just 5%, implying extremely low near-term likelihood despite the defense contractor's recent $1.5B funding round and reported unicorn status.
Analysis
This market is pricing an Anduril IPO before August 2026 at just 5%, implying extremely low near-term likelihood despite the defense contractor's recent $1.5B funding round and reported unicorn status. The 6531% implied yield on Yes contracts reflects severe illiquidity—zero 24-hour volume and only $551 open interest with a 5¢ spread—making this more of a speculative lottery ticket than a liquid prediction. With 106 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 19, any material news on Anduril's IPO timeline could create outsized price swings in this thinly-traded contract.
Resolution rules
If Anduril confirms an IPO before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOANDURIL-26AUG01 yes 100