When will Anduril IPO
Leader sits at 13% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jun 1, 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
340 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
When will Anduril IPO
When will Anduril IPO?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXIPOANDURIL-26SEP01
When will Anduril IPO?: Before May 1, 2027
KXIPOANDURIL-27MAY01
When will Anduril IPO?: Before Mar 1, 2027
KXIPOANDURIL-27MAR01
When will Anduril IPO?: Before Jun 1, 2027
KXIPOANDURIL-27JUN01
When will Anduril IPO?: Before Feb 1, 2027
KXIPOANDURIL-27FEB01
When will Anduril IPO?: Before Apr 1, 2027
KXIPOANDURIL-27APR01
Analysis
An 18% probability indicates the market assesses a less-than-one-in-five chance that Anduril Industries will complete an IPO by the end of 2026. This reflects the typical timeline for defense technology companies preparing for public markets, which typically requires 12-24 months of preparation including regulatory filings and SEC review. The current level suggests skepticism about Anduril meeting a 2026 deadline, though the company has not publicly committed to this timeframe. Key drivers include the company's funding stage, existing regulatory scrutiny of defense contractors, and comparable timelines from similar companies. Market participants appear to be pricing in a higher probability of OpenAI or SpaceX IPOs before Anduril, based on those contracts trading notably higher. The main uncertainty would be resolved by either SEC filing announcements from Anduril or explicit public statements from leadership regarding IPO timing.
- ›Anduril has raised significant venture funding but has not announced formal IPO plans or SEC filing timeline as of mid-2026
- ›Defense technology companies face extended regulatory review periods; comparable contractors typically require 18+ months from announcement to market listing
- ›Comparable contracts show SpaceX before July 2026 at 79¢ and Anthropic IPO announcement before Nov 2026 at 72¢, suggesting market expects other tech IPOs ahead of Anduril
- ›Anduril's "before 2027" contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, indicating only ~8% probability even with a 6+ month window
- ›No scheduled dates, regulatory filings, or leadership statements in public record indicate imminent IPO process
What moved the line
- Jun 23Before Jun 1, 2027↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Before Jun 1, 2027↓3pp17→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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