What is the current probability for "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 5¢ (5% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2026. 40 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 17214.8% and 47.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will AppsFlyer IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will AppsFlyer IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that When will AppsFlyer IPO?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15,349% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable.

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5¢

Bid/Ask 0/3¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $18·Closes Jun 1, 2026·40d remaining

KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26JUN01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 15,349% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 5% price reflects very low market conviction that AppsFlyer will IPO within 45 days, though the wide 3¢ spread and high cliff risk index (19) suggest significant uncertainty about resolution mechanics or potential edge cases. With less than 1.5 months to expiry and no recent trading activity, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet with minimal market depth.

Resolution rules

If AppsFlyer confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 17214.8%

IY (No) 47.7%

Adj IY 3443%

CRI 19

Overround 0.6%

LAS 0.60

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	17214.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	47.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3443%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.60	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:19:00 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOAPPSFLYER-26JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →