SimpleFunctions

Before Jan 1, 2027 · When will Deel IPO?: Before

Before Jan 1, 2027 is priced at 12¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 12¢ bid, 18¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 13 inside When will Deel IPO?: Before.

Price history

12¢ current

+11¢
0¢10¢20¢
Apr 30, 2026May 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Deel confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Jan 1, 2027

Rank

#6 of 13

Leader

Before Jun 1, 2027 34¢

Range

1¢-34¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXIPODEEL-27JAN01

May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Implied probability

12¢
Latest venue quote
May 25, 2026, 1:38 AM UTC · 25m ago

Bid

12¢

Ask

18¢

Spread

Reported volume

$4K

Family rank

#6 of 13

13 outcomes · When will Deel IPO?: Before

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

12 / 18¢

Kalshi
6¢ spread
BidSize
12¢505
7¢101
6¢1
5¢115
3¢44
AskSize
21¢500
25¢100
60¢50
61¢895

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Deel confirms an IPO before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

Identifier

KXIPODEEL-27JAN01

SF Signal
SF Index
302.60
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1210.4%

IY (No)

22.5%

Adj IY

303%

CRI

7

Overround

0.6%

LAS

0.50

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

1210.4%
22.5%
Adj IY
303%
7
Overround
0.6%
LAS
0.50

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.