SimpleFunctions

Before Mar 1, 2027 · When will Deel IPO?: Before

Before Mar 1, 2027 is priced at 53¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 18¢ bid, 27¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 13 inside When will Deel IPO?: Before.

Price history

53¢ current

+32¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 26, 2026May 22, 2026

Contract brief

If Deel confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Before Mar 1, 2027

Rank

#4 of 13

Leader

Before Jun 1, 2027 34¢

Range

1¢-34¢

Family volume

$0

Identifier

KXIPODEEL-27MAR01

May 24, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 9m ago

Implied probability

53¢
Latest venue quote
May 24, 2026, 5:08 PM UTC · 9m ago

Bid

18¢

Ask

27¢

Spread

Reported volume

$164

Family rank

#4 of 13

13 outcomes · When will Deel IPO?: Before

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Family volume

$0

Orderbook snapshot

18 / 27¢

Kalshi
9¢ spread
BidSize
18¢500
14¢101
11¢100
4¢20
3¢60
AskSize
27¢500
34¢100
35¢51
41¢10
84¢1.9K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Deel confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Mar 1, 2027

Identifier

KXIPODEEL-27MAR01

SF Signal
SF Index
296.40
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

592.8%

IY (No)

28.6%

Adj IY

296%

CRI

5

Overround

0.6%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Observability

medium

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

592.8%
28.6%
Adj IY
296%
5
Overround
0.6%

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.