What is the current probability for "When will Deel IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 32¢ (32% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2027. 405 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Deel IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 200.4% and 40.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Deel IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Deel IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 32% probability that When will Deel IPO?. This contract trades at 32¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $151 open interest, making the 41% probability potentially unreliable as a price discovery mechanism.

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32¢

Bid/Ask 31/40¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $23.98·OI $152·Closes Jun 1, 2027·405d remaining

KXIPODEEL-27JUN01

7-day price6 snapshots · 2 regime

33¢31¢ current

Apr 831¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $151 open interest, making the 41% probability potentially unreliable as a price discovery mechanism. The 189.1% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction about Deel's IPO timing. With 410 days to expiration and a wide 9¢ spread, this contract would be difficult to exit at posted prices, suggesting traders should demand significant compensation for the execution risk.

Resolution rules

If Deel confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 200.4%

IY (No) 40.5%

Adj IY 100%

CRI 2

Overround 0.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	200.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	40.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	100%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:33:50 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODEEL-27JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →