What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 63¢ (63% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on February 1, 2027. 285 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 96.5% and 169.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 63% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 63¢ on Kalshi, closing February 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $390 open interest, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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63¢

Bid/Ask 57/66¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $390·Closes Feb 1, 2027·285d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-27FEB01

7-day price18 snapshots · 2 regime

59¢57¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 19

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and just $390 open interest, making the 63¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 91.1% implied yield on the Yes side appears artificially inflated due to thin order books, while the sharp 13¢-to-58¢ price movement over seven days suggests recent volatility rather than fundamental conviction. With nearly 290 days to expiry and a wide 9¢ spread, traders should demand significant liquidity improvement before treating this as a meaningful probability estimate for Discord's IPO timing.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 96.5%

IY (No) 169.6%

Adj IY 85%

CRI 1

Overround 4.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	96.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	169.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	85%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:15:37 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-27FEB01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →