What is the current probability for "When will Discord IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 74¢ (74% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 1, 2027. 405 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Discord IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 48.5% and 167.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Discord IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Discord IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 74% probability that When will Discord IPO?. This contract trades at 74¢ on Kalshi, closing June 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $378 open interest, making the 74¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread.

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74¢

Bid/Ask 65/74¢·Spread 9¢·Vol $0·OI $378·Closes Jun 1, 2027·405d remaining

KXIPODISCORD-27JUN01

7-day price19 snapshots · 2 regime

67¢65¢ current

Apr 854¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $378 open interest, making the 74¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 9¢ spread. The dramatic 7-day rally from 54¢ to 65¢ appears driven by minimal trading rather than fundamental conviction, and the 165% implied yield on the "No" side suggests sophisticated traders are significantly underweighting an IPO outcome over the next 410 days. The neutral regime and low cliff risk indicate no imminent catalysts, so this appears to be a speculative position in an illiquid market rather than a genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

If Discord confirms an IPO before Jun 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 48.5%

IY (No) 167.3%

Adj IY 84%

CRI 2

Overround 4.4%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	48.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	167.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	84%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

9¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:15:43 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPODISCORD-27JUN01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →