When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 62% probability that When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?. This contract trades at 62¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $618.75 open interest, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $618.75 open interest, making the 62¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 7¢ spread. The implied yield of 3838% for a Yes outcome is extraordinarily high and suggests either severe mispricing or minimal conviction from traders, particularly given that the contract has 228 days to expiration. The dramatic price recovery from 1¢ to 4¢ over seven days combined with the elevated Cliff Risk Index of 24 indicates recent volatility in a thin market, warranting caution before treating this probability estimate as market consensus.
Resolution rules
If Fannie Mae confirms an IPO before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXIPOFANNIE-26DEC01 yes 100