When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 70% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 70¢ on Kalshi, closing December 1, 2026. The market is pricing a 53% probability of a BLA submission by end-2026, but the extremely high realized volatility (244%) and elevated implied yields (130.6% for Yes, 195.1% for No) suggest significant uncertainty around the binary outcome.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 53% probability of a BLA submission by end-2026, but the extremely high realized volatility (244%) and elevated implied yields (130.6% for Yes, 195.1% for No) suggest significant uncertainty around the binary outcome. With near-zero 24-hour volume and only $510.93 open interest, liquidity is critically low, making the 7¢ spread potentially misleading—the true execution cost could be substantially higher, and the recent price movement from 53¢ to 57¢ may reflect thin-market noise rather than meaningful information arrival.
Resolution rules
If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26DEC01 yes 100