When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $202 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment.
Analysis
This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $202 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment. The 471.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either significant underpricing of submission odds or illiquidity-driven distortion, though the modest 2 Cliff Risk Index indicates the market structure itself is stable. With 138 days to expiry and a recent 3¢ price increase, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, so caution is warranted before treating the probability as definitive.
Resolution rules
If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26SEP01 yes 100