When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that When will Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submit a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing September 1, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $202 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment.

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37¢
Bid/Ask 34/44¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $217.75·Closes Sep 1, 2026·125d remaining
KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26SEP01
7-day price32 snapshots · 6 regime
37¢34¢ current
Apr 832¢Apr 22

Analysis

12d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $202 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 36¢ price potentially unreliable for gauging true market sentiment. The 471.7% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and suggests either significant underpricing of submission odds or illiquidity-driven distortion, though the modest 2 Cliff Risk Index indicates the market structure itself is stable. With 138 days to expiry and a recent 3¢ price increase, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an actively traded market, so caution is warranted before treating the probability as definitive.

Resolution rules

If Intellia Therapeutics, Inc. submits a BLA for Lonvoguran Ziclumeran (lonvo-z) to the FDA before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 566.2%
IY (No) 150.3%
Adj IY 283%
CRI 2
Overround 2.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)566.2%
IY (No)150.3%
Adj IY283%
CRI2
Overround2.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.568
Spread
10¢
Computed
4/29/2026, 10:56:53 AM
Observability highEvent type data_release
Indicators computed 4/29/2026, 10:53:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNEWDRUGAPPNTLA-LONV-26SEP01 yes 100

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