What is the current probability for "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 1, 2026. 162 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Olipop IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 7272.6% and 7.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Olipop IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Olipop IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that When will Olipop IPO?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable.

████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

10¢

Bid/Ask 3/9¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $0·OI $200·Closes Oct 1, 2026·162d remaining

KXIPOOLIPOP-26OCT01

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $200 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable. The 5239.8% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of thin markets where small positions can create outsized return metrics, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful tail risk around resolution. With 167 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a speculative long-shot bet on Olipop's IPO timeline rather than a liquid consensus forecast.

Resolution rules

If Olipop confirms an IPO before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 7272.6%

IY (No) 7.0%

Adj IY 3636%

CRI 32

Overround 0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	7272.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3636%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:30:27 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXIPOOLIPOP-26OCT01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →