When will Stripe IPO?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that When will Stripe IPO?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. With only 12 days to expiration and zero 24-hour volume, this market is essentially illiquid despite the sensational 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—a figure driven purely by the 3¢ floor price rather than genuine probability assessment.
Analysis
With only 12 days to expiration and zero 24-hour volume, this market is essentially illiquid despite the sensational 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—a figure driven purely by the 3¢ floor price rather than genuine probability assessment. The $189 open interest and 1¢ spread suggest minimal market confidence in either outcome, and the flat 7-day price action indicates this is a stagnant position unlikely to attract fresh capital before the May 1 deadline. Given Stripe's historical resistance to going public and the compressed timeframe, the 3% probability appears reasonable, though the extreme yield calculation reflects more about the illiquidity mechanics than realistic upside potential.
Resolution rules
If Stripe confirms an IPO before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSTRIPEIPO-26MAY01 yes 100