What is the current probability for "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on March 1, 2027. 313 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Stripe IPO?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1547.7% and 8.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Stripe IPO?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Stripe IPO?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that When will Stripe IPO?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing March 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 7/15¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $1,175·Closes Mar 1, 2027·313d remaining

KXSTRIPEIPO-27MAR01

7-day price24 snapshots · 2 regime

11¢7¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 9¢ spread, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 1524% implied yield on the Yes side is a classic sign of thin markets where small positions can create outsized theoretical returns, though the $1,175 open interest suggests minimal real capital is committed. The recent price decline from 10¢ to 7¢ over seven days, combined with neutral regime conditions and a 318-day timeframe, indicates either genuine skepticism about a near-term Stripe IPO or simply a lack of market interest rather than informed conviction.

Resolution rules

If Stripe confirms an IPO before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1547.7%

IY (No) 8.8%

Adj IY 774%

CRI 13

Overround -0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1547.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	774%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:37:00 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:23:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSTRIPEIPO-27MAR01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →