What is the current probability for "When will Trump announce a new trade deal?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 21¢ (21% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 9 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "When will Trump announce a new trade deal?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 22401.5% and 697.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "When will Trump announce a new trade deal?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

When will Trump announce a new trade deal?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 21% probability that When will Trump announce a new trade deal?. This contract trades at 21¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over seven days, declining from 24¢ to 20¢, suggesting reduced trader confidence in a Trump trade deal announcement within the 14-day window.

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21¢

Bid/Ask 15/21¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $1,092.93·OI $2,534.79·Closes May 1, 2026·9d remaining

KXNEWDEAL-MAY01

7-day price106 snapshots · 12 regime

24¢15¢ current

Apr 88¢Apr 21

Analysis

4d ago

The market has experienced significant downward price pressure over seven days, declining from 24¢ to 20¢, suggesting reduced trader confidence in a Trump trade deal announcement within the 14-day window. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 13,552.9% on the Yes side reflects the extreme illiquidity ($260.56 daily volume against $1,217.82 open interest) and tight timeframe, making this contract highly speculative despite the neutral regime score. With a Cliff Risk Index of 5 and only two weeks to expiry, this market carries substantial execution risk and should be treated as a tail-event bet rather than a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

If the President announces a new trade deal before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 22401.5%

IY (No) 697.6%

Adj IY 13441%

CRI 6

RV 896%

VR 0.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	22401.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	697.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	13441%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	896%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.40	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 10:34:18 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 10:23:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNEWDEAL-MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →