Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record?

The Yes contract trades at an extremely depressed 4¢ despite a 3,396% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or structural distrust in resolution mechanics—particularly given the market's high realized volatility (1,764%) and elevated cliff risk index (24). With 258 days to expiry and only $1.1K in daily volume against $32.4K open interest, liquidity is dangerously thin, creating execution risk for any meaningful position. The sharp 7-day decline from 5¢ to 4¢ combined with a neutral regime score indicates recent bearish sentiment, though given 2024-2025's record-breaking temperatures, the probabilistic underpricing of a third-hottest outcome warrants scrutiny.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

Indicators

Regime

Trade