What is the current probability for "Where will Bernardo Silva go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 26¢ (26% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Bernardo Silva go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1211.6% and 37.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Bernardo Silva go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Bernardo Silva go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 26% probability that Where will Bernardo Silva go next?. This contract trades at 26¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 1291.3% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable—it reflects the extreme 0¢ price rather than genuine market consensus.

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26¢

Bid/Ask 15/27¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $41.31·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02BSILVA-BEN

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 1291.3% implied yield on the Yes side unreliable—it reflects the extreme 0¢ price rather than genuine market consensus. The 12¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary contract, and the 6 Cliff Risk Index suggests potential resolution ambiguity around Silva's transfer timing. With 174 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be an illiquid, early-stage market where any trades would significantly move prices rather than reveal true probability.

Resolution rules

If Bernardo Silva's next club is SL Benfica before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1211.6%

IY (No) 37.7%

Adj IY 606%

CRI 6

Overround -0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1211.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	37.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	606%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02BSILVA-BEN yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →