What is the current probability for "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4062.4% and 11.3% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Where will Jean-Philippe Mateta go next?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 10¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Mateta's potential AC Milan move.

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10¢mid

Bid/Ask 5/15¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JMATETA-ACM

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows classic illiquidity characteristics with zero volume and open interest despite a substantial 10¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in Mateta's potential AC Milan move. The 2120% implied yield on the Yes side is a mathematical artifact of the 0¢ price floor rather than genuine opportunity, while the 10 Cliff Risk Index indicates high resolution uncertainty given the binary nature of player transfers. With 174 days to expiration and no price movement over seven days, this appears to be a dormant market awaiting either concrete transfer news or increased liquidity to establish meaningful pricing.

Resolution rules

If Jean-Philippe Mateta's next club is AC Milan before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4062.4%

IY (No) 11.3%

Adj IY 2031%

CRI 19

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4062.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	11.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2031%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:06:34 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:53:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02JMATETA-ACM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →