What is the current probability for "Where will Morgan Rogers go next?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 11¢ (11% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on October 9, 2026. 171 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Where will Morgan Rogers go next?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1730.0% and 26.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Where will Morgan Rogers go next?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Where will Morgan Rogers go next?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Where will Morgan Rogers go next?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing October 9, 2026. This market shows zero trading activity with $0 in both volume and open interest, indicating minimal investor interest in Rogers joining Manchester City by the October 2026 deadline.

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11¢

Bid/Ask 0/11¢·Spread 11¢·Vol $0·OI $4.27·Closes Oct 9, 2026·171d remaining

KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02MROGERS-MCI

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows zero trading activity with $0 in both volume and open interest, indicating minimal investor interest in Rogers joining Manchester City by the October 2026 deadline. The 10¢ spread on a 0% probability suggests the market is essentially inactive and illiquid, making any position difficult to execute at meaningful size. With roughly 1.5 years until expiration, the lack of engagement is notable given the specificity of the outcome and timeframe.

Resolution rules

If Morgan Rogers's next club is Manchester City before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1730.0%

IY (No) 26.4%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 8

Overround -0.4%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1730.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	26.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	8	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.4%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

11¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 9:09:50 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 9:08:18 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXJOINCLUB-26OCT02MROGERS-MCI yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →