Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. This market prices xAI's Grok as a 7% favorite to lead LiveBench's coding rankings by year-end 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,876% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and likely mispricing rather than genuine conviction.
Analysis
This market prices xAI's Grok as a 7% favorite to lead LiveBench's coding rankings by year-end 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,876% on the Yes side signals severe illiquidity and likely mispricing rather than genuine conviction. With only $18.17 in daily volume against $63k open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, the market lacks depth to support such extreme yield calculations, suggesting the 7¢ price may not reflect true probability. The recent 40% price appreciation from 5¢ to 7¢ over seven days, combined with a moderate cliff risk index of 13 and 259 days to resolution, indicates this is a speculative position in a thin market where large moves can occur on minimal trading activity.
Also on polymarket at —¢
Resolution rules
If xAI has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI yes 100