Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 18 contracts. Kalshi at 22%, Polymarket at 26% — a 4pp cross-venue gap.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
7 contracts
Polymarket
26%
11 contracts
Cross-venue gap
4pp
modest gap
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
18 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 22¢ · Polymarket 26¢ · 4pp spread
Buy on Kalshi (22¢, 7 contracts) and sell on Polymarket (26¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
3 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Which company” vs “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which company
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Google
0x0bd1b8…76e4
Which company has best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x734c6c…eee7
Which company has best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xa4d726…9cca
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Anthropic
0xd0e97d…c55a
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-NET
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-AMA
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: Google
0x9a43c9…e5f3
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Anthropic
0x0811ed…801e
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: xAI
0xe56341…0da1
Which company has second best AI model end of June?: OpenAI
0x06a7a2…02c6
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-DIS
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): OpenAI
0x2bdf39…bbc8
Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On): Google
0xa3681c…3494
Cluster 2
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Google
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Cluster 3
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30
Which DCMs self-certify sports event contracts by June 30?: The Clearing Company
0x3ba33a…f066
What moved the line
- May 6Anthropic↓18pp69→51¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Google↑14pp17→31¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Anthropic↑11pp58→69¢ · Polymarket
- May 6Anthropic↑7pp53→60¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Google↓7pp24→17¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in technology
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- What will Bernie Sanders say during The Existential Threat of AIyeslast 79% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.