Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Anthropic is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 60¢ bid, 61¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 9 inside Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026.
Price history
61¢ current
+5¢Contract brief
If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Anthropic
Rank
#1 of 9
Leader
Anthropic 60¢
Range
1¢-60¢
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Jul 22, 2026, 6:38 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
60¢
Ask
61¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#1 of 9
9 outcomes · Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
60 / 61¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Anthropic has the top-ranked model on LiveBench.ai ranked by "Coding Average" on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Event family
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
Anthropic 60¢
Current share
20%
Anthropic
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
OpenAI
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
xAI
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-GOOG
Z.ai
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ZAI
Alibaba
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ALIB
Baidu
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-BAID
DeepSeek
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-DEEP
Moonshot AI
kalshi · KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-MOON
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
scientific
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Which company has the third best AI model end of April
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which company has the best Coding AI model end of April
Which company has the #1 AI model end of April? (Style Control On)
Which company has the second best Coding AI model end of April
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.