Which company has the best Math AI model end of April
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 23% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
23%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
130 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 22% of their title tokens — “Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026” vs “Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: xAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-XAI
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: OpenAI
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-OPEN
Which AI company will have the best coding model on Dec 31, 2026?: Anthropic
KXCODINGMODEL-26DEC-ANTH
Cluster 2
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Disney
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-DIS
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Netflix
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-NET
Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public?: Amazon
KXAISTREAMSERIES-27-AMA
Analysis
This market estimates a 27% probability that a specific company will be recognized as having the best mathematical AI model by end of April 2026. The estimate reflects significant disagreement between Polymarket (33%) and Kalshi (19%), suggesting uncertainty about both evaluation criteria and which company's model will perform strongest. The probability would likely increase if a particular company releases a math-specialized model with strong benchmark results, or decrease if competitors release superior alternatives. The main driver of current uncertainty appears to be the lack of standardized benchmarks for comparing mathematical reasoning capabilities across models—different evaluation methodologies could substantially shift assessments. The probability should resolve when industry benchmarks, academic comparisons, or formal evaluations of mathematical AI capabilities are published or become widely recognized as definitive.
- ›Polymarket contracts price Anthropic at 92% for best model by end of June, suggesting market confidence, though the April deadline makes this comparison speculative
- ›The 14-percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi indicates meaningful disagreement on how to evaluate 'best,' potentially reflecting different interpretations of mathematical reasoning benchmarks
- ›Trading volume concentrates on the June endpoint ($39,340 on leading contracts) rather than April, suggesting limited information or consensus around the earlier deadline
- ›No scheduled major math AI benchmark release or standardized evaluation date has been publicly announced that would definitively resolve what 'best' means
- ›Current odds heavily discount OpenAI (3-4¢) and Google (6¢) despite their ongoing AI development, reflecting market expectations about relative mathematical capabilities
What moved the line
- Aug 18Amazon↑49pp14→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Amazon↓18pp59→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Amazon↑10pp4→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Amazon↓9pp41→32¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23xAI↓5pp15→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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