Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 35,282% implied yield on the "Yes" side, suggesting severe underpricing of strike probability at just 7 cents despite the geopolitically volatile UAE-Iran dynamic and only 14 days to expiry. The sharp 86% price collapse from 13¢ to 7¢ over seven days, combined with elevated realized volatility of 590% and a concerning Cliff Risk Index of 13, indicates either capitulation selling or significant new information that hasn't fully resolved market uncertainty. With $24.5M in 24-hour volume and $71.4M open interest, liquidity is adequate, but the extreme yield asymmetry and high volatility suggest this contract may be mispriced relative to actual geopolitical risk, particularly given the tight timeframe.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by the listed country's military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a missile launched by the listed country, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by ground operatives of the listed country will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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