Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Polymarket, closing December 31, 2026.

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12¢
Bid/Ask 11/13¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $650.91·OI $26,396.655·Closes Dec 31, 2026·253d remaining
0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0
7-day price293 snapshots · 26 regime
14¢12¢ current
Apr 87¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekend Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/year/2026 will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its 3-day domestic opening weekend than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's 3-day opening weekend (Friday, Saturday, Sunday), regardless of whether the movie has a 4 or 5-day opening weekend. If another movie's opening weekend box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win. If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1058.3%
IY (No) 19.7%
Adj IY 441%
CRI 7
Overround -0.1%
LAS 0.17
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)1058.3%
IY (No)19.7%
Adj IY441%
CRI7
Overround-0.1%
LAS0.17

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.432
Spread
2¢
Computed
4/22/2026, 2:02:25 AM
Observability mediumEvent type unknown
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 1:53:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarketsf trade 0x76c1a69f2b0a7fcfa97b56ddbeaad1981a8cb3d8f24c1adce62ffa2d010ebbe0 yes 100

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