Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Leader sits at 73% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Avengers: Doomsday
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
Spread
57pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$186
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
206 days
Venue
Polymarket
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Toy Story 5
0x4a3bae…e78a
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Avengers: Doomsday
0x14d327…1988
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: Spider-Man: Brand New Day
0x76c1a6…bbe0
Which movie has biggest opening weekend in 2026?: The Odyssey
0x342eaa…0f9e
Analysis
This 76% probability indicates that market participants believe one specific film will achieve the largest opening weekend in 2026 with roughly three-to-one odds. The current leader appears to be "The Devil Wears Prada 2," supported by contract pricing showing majority expectation for a 70-80 million dollar opening. The prediction hinges on two primary uncertainties: the actual opening weekend performance of this sequel and whether competing releases scheduled throughout 2026 might outperform it. The resolve catalyst is the first weekend box office results for the film's theatrical release, which will provide definitive data against all other 2026 releases. Market confidence reflects prior performance of similar franchise revivals and current studio marketing signals, though actual audience reception and competing titles' strength remain unknown variables that could significantly shift probabilities before the outcome settles.
- ›The market assigns 93% confidence to "The Devil Wears Prada 2" opening in the 70-80 million dollar range versus 80-90 million, suggesting consensus around specific revenue forecasts
- ›No other competing films show substantial contract volume or pricing in available data, indicating either limited awareness of alternatives or genuine market belief in this film's dominance
- ›The 76% leader price is substantially higher than runner-up at 15%, reflecting significant market concentration rather than close competition
- ›Opening weekend box office results are deterministic and publicly reported within days of release, providing clear resolution without interpretation
- ›The question structure requires identifying the single largest opening weekend across all 2026 releases, making performance relative to all competing titles the critical variable
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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